If you're going purely based on history, the trends seen in the stock chart above would suggest that Nvidia stock will be headed higher after it reports earnings on Feb. 26. But smart investors know all too well that past performance shouldn't be used as your sole barometer.

The chip maker is likely to be watching OpenAI after a consortium headed by Elon Musk offered almost $100 billion for the nonprofit that controls the maker of ChatGPT.

When a stock price moves, so does the value of the company. In the case of Nvidia, the company's cratering share price has resulted in as much as $600 billion of lost market capitalization. On the surface, this looks horrific. However, as it often is the case with investments driven by overwhelming emotions, there's more than meets the eye.