U.S. stocks are sinking on worries that Friday’s good news on the job market may be too good and prove to be bad for Wall Street by keeping inflation and interest rates high. The S&P 500 was down 0.8% in early trading and on track for its fourth losing week in the last five.
U.S. inflation data in the coming week could test the nerves of stock investors and further inflame worries about rising Treasury yields and uncertainty over Donald Trump's policy plans. After back-to-back standout years,
Top Federal Reserve officials — including Chair Jerome Powell — are increasingly pointing to an obscure price gauge as a reason to maintain confidence in their outlook: “market-based” inflation.
The recent rise in long-term interest rates reflects higher risk premiums as opposed to concerns about inflation, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin said.
Participants for the most part favored slowing the pace of rate cuts, after approving a 0.25% reduction last month, the third of the year and which, combined, brought interest rates down 1%. The Federal Reserve's committee's next meeting is scheduled for Jan. 28-29.
Inflation has cooled considerably since peaking in June 2022, but the annual rate remains above the Federal Reserve's goal of 2%. Fed officials and economists expect inflation to stay above the central bank's target level in 2025. Economists say that the tariffs that President-elect Donald Trump has pledged to implement could drive up prices.
To summarize, the Federal Reserve has already lowered by 50% the number of anticipated interest rate cuts in 2025. It was four in September, but that number dropped to two at the December meeting. Policymakers may revise that number lower if their economic projections once again prove incorrect.
Bitcoin is down Wednesday, but didn't move much after the Federal Reserve hinted it would be slow to cut interest rates this year.
These are today's mortgage and refinance rates. Mortgage rates are flat, but incoming job market and inflation data could push them up or down.
A hot jobs report makes it even more likely the Federal Reserve won’t cut rates at its next meeting in January — or for the foreseeable future.